Bitcoin (BTC) Getting Ready to Make a Decision
Bitcoin (BTC) has been climbing steadily within an ascending channel pattern for weeks now but has been consistently held back by resistance at $10,500. Now it’s nearing the end of this ever-decreasing triangle and must make a decision – up, or down.
A lot of money has poured into BTC recently between the $9,400 and $9,700 levels, helping to maintain this upward trajectory and build decent support at these levels. If it continues in this pattern it will need a decisive break above $10.5k before mid-June or we could see a trend reversal back down to previous support levels at $7,200. In general, crypto news remains positive but some of the more cautious analysts are hesitant to confirm a bullish rally just yet.
Bitcoin’s MVRV above zero
The blockchain analytics team at Santiment revealed early this week that Bitcoin’s MVRV Long/Short difference recently moved above zero: historically, a bullish sign. The MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) indicator is useful in predicting long-term distribution and accumulation cycles by examining the percentage of investors that are in profit. However, it’s developers note that overtime this indicator could lose its effectiveness and, as always, is not immune to ‘black swan’ events.
Despite the positive news and bullish indicators, Santiment notes that general sentiment regarding Bitcoin is at a low. However, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing – last June, online sentiment also dropped to a low just before the big July rally.
$75k in a few weeks?
In other bullish news, Timothy Peterson from Cane Island Digital Research has tweeted a comparison of today’s BTCUSD chart to that of 2013. The chart indicates a rally to $75,000 within a few weeks if the price movements continue to follow each other. However, while the comparison is eerily similar, the prediction doesn’t have a lot of backing by any other concrete analysis. Looking at Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model, it is likely that such a rally will eventually happen, just not in the next few weeks.
A decline in exchange-held funds
More positive news: the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has been steadily dropping, indicating a lot of people are moving BTC to wallets with the intention of long-term holding. This could be interpreted as a sign that investors are not expecting any further bearish movement. Analysis firm Glassnode shows a decline in BTC held on exchanges by around 13% over the past four months.
As always with Bitcoin, not everyone is bullish. Long-running crypto exchange Kraken has released its May 2020 volatility report that sees a potential downside to $6,200 if BTC can’t break $10k soon. It goes on further to warn of increased volatility in June as the 7-day average mempool transaction count recently hit a 28-month high. So whatever happens, it’s gonna be a wild ride!