Over the weekend the Bitcoin (BTC) price finally broke through the much-anticipated $10,000 point and then continued in parabolic fashion straight through $11,000. Price jumps of over $1,000 in a weekend most certainly bring back memories of Bitcoin’s epic December 2017 bull-run, but will this time be the same?
The weekend run that began Thursday evening with a break above $9,000 quickly reached $10,000 by Friday and was above $11,000 only a few hours later. As expected, it corrected just as quickly back down to about $10,500 but managed to hold and has since climbed back to current levels around $11,000.
The good, the bad and the ugly
The majority of analysts are surprisingly positive about this bull run, with less than usual predicting an incoming crash. There has been a lot of talk about the 2020 halving event and how this year’s growth is front-running it as opposed to previous years that followed behind it. It shows a shift in perspective regarding how (and when) investors are choosing to buy in and supports the theory that this rally is powered by institutional money rather than retail investors.
The lack of momentum following the break above $10,000 further suggests that FOMO buyers are either not driving this rally OR have not yet joined the party. If buyers were waiting on the sidelines, one would imagine that the $10,000 mark would bring them in. So retail investors are either tapped out or simply more skittish (from prior experience) and awaiting strong confirmation of a new rally.
A likely possibility is that the majority of FOMO buyers from the 2017 rally are still waiting to get back into the green before considering their next move. A lot of people are still licking wounds from the 2018 crash and won’t be prepared to risk any more pain until they are guaranteed profits. This means we will probably see a more rational, steady climb towards $20,000 that is driven by technological developments rather than irrational exuberance. Growth of that nature is far less likely to result in the 80-90% corrections we have seen in the past and be more beneficial to the industry in the long-run.
A flurry of price predictions
The new Bitcoin rally has ushered in a flurry of new price predictions to go with it. The majority of predictions are positive and see the Bitcoin price breaking the previous all-time high of $20,000 before this year ends. Investor and monetary scientist Trace Mayer sees Bitcoin reaching $21,000 by December this year based on his “Mayer Multiple” chart but says it’s unlikely we’ll see anything higher than this.
In a CNBC interview, Bitcoin perma-bull Tom Lee of Fundstrat says we’ll likely see new highs above $20k within a few months and on the more long-term front, the ever-positive Anthony Pompliano predicts $100,000 by the end of 2021. Vocal Bitcoin critic Nouriel Roubini has been rather quiet on the crypto front lately, choosing to rather focus on the ongoing U.S./China trade war.
Bitcoin is up three percent today and currently trading at $11,062.53, with the overall cryptocurrency market cap at $324 billion after gaining $25 billion over the weekend.