Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the $7,800 level ever since the dip below $8,000 earlier this week, with volume steadily declining. While this alone isn’t an indicator or an incoming dip, sentiment amongst analysts seems to be leaning to the bearish side.
The wave of positive headlines that dominated the news last week is starting to fade as Bitcoin continues to post lower highs. With predictions of $10,000 out of the picture, analysts are now beginning to envision what the lowest low could be.
Bearish Outlook
In a recent tweet, economist Leah Wald uses a graph tracking the price of sugar over a 12 year period on the U.S. intercontinental exchange (ICE) to reveal how an asset can retest previous lows if it doesn’t create a new all-time high (ATH). In relation to the cryptocurrency market, this means Bitcoin could still drop as low as it’s phase 1 ($1,000) level before either recovering or (possibly) settling there for good.
The tweet was part of a 20-part tweet storm questioning whether Bitcoin is still in a ‘Hyperwave’, a theory developed by Tyler Jenks that details the wild phases that a financial asset goes through in its early stages when over-eager investors trade on emotion rather than technicals.
A slightly less bearish outlook sees the Bitcoin price reach an absolute low of $5,404 – the .618 Fibonacci level. The analysis, put forward by trader and popular crypto-twitter voice Josh Rager, details various levels that Bitcoin could pull back to based on the Fib retracement tool. He echoes earlier analysis that sees $6,400 as a critical support level and also mentions the 0.5 fib support level of $6,121.
BTC Price Analysis
The support level at $8,000 has now turned to resistance and without a significant amount of additional liquidity to break through it, this current period of consolidation could begin waning to the downside.
The next major support level lies at $7,600, a point that has helped buoy up Bitcoin twice this week already. Below that, the low end of the 4-hour Bollinger Band provides additional support at $7,300. On the upside, a move above $8,000 will find resistance at $8,150 (the monthly 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $8,400, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) on the 4-hour.
Bitcoin is currently struggling to hold support above $7,800 with very little change today and a market cap of $138.34 billion.
