Popular technical analyst and founder of live trading room platform ElliotWaveTrader.net Avi Gilburt, has outlined his predictions for the future of Bitcoin (BTC).
Following a nine-month-long bear market that has taken the asset down from $19,000 to current levels, the Bitcoin crash is now reported to be worse than the one that followed the burst of the dot-com bubble.
Gilburt, however, believes the bottom is near. Outlining his analysis of price movements over the past nine months, he sees the current pattern coming to end at around the $4,700 level. Before then, BTC will presumably continue to trade up and down through the $5,000 – $6,000 range for a while.
Gilburt didn’t specify a timeline for his prediction but his associated graph would indicate a bottom around mid-December this year. He did, however, point out the volatile nature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, warning that mitigating factors could force a second downturn and a lower bottom of possibly $3,000.
I would imagine of a low of this level to be decidedly unlikely though, taking into consideration the growing institutional interest in stock market trading tools for Bitcoin. The introduction of traditional stock market capital into the cryptocurrency market will add liquidity and undoubtedly drive the value higher. Unfortunately, this will also likely bring fresh volatility and further hinder mass adoption.
Fintech research firm Trefis has predicted a value of $8,500 for Bitcoin by December which could be possible if it movements unfold over a faster timescale. For the prediction to pan out, BTC would have to bottom out around early November and be followed by a significant rally.
Upcoming developments that could alter price movements in the short-term include ever-toughening Chinese regulation, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decisions on Bitcoin ETF’s, Coinbase custody services and further growth in the CME and CBOE futures market.
There has been several unexpected spikes and dips in the crypto market recently, with the majority of altcoins losing almost half their value over August, only to rally up again 20 percent in the past week. Despite a sudden loss of 15 percent of its value last week due to over-valuation, Bitcoin has actually been one of the strongest performing and least volatile assets lately.
Following a minor dip this morning, BTC continues to trade around the $6,500 region.