Back in 2014, the altcoin market enjoyed a relatively sharp increase followed by a correction that saw the market lose 86 percent of its value over the space of 266 days.
What followed was a huge rally that brought the market back up to previous all-time highs over the space of a few months and eventually to over half a trillion dollars a few years later.
Today, the altcoin market is down 85 percent and it’s been 252 days since the beginning of this years long, drawn-out correction. As things are going it would seem likely that in 14 days times, after 266 days, the market will again be down exactly 86 percent.
Twitter user @galaxybtc detailed these developments in a recent tweet:
Biggest decline in altcoin marketcap was in 2014 -86% with a total duration of 266 days before a massive bounce.
— Galaxy (@galaxybtc) September 11, 2018
So will history repeat itself, or is this all simply a big coincidence?
Unfortunately, the blockchain and crypto industry of today is not what it was four years ago. While many may say mass adoption is a long way off, initial investment capital has likely been largely diminished. Those looking to invest heavily in cryptocurrency have mostly done so by now, while those looking to get passively involved are now waiting for crypto to come to them.
It’s unlikely that the market will benefit again from the media-driven frenzy that saw it reach almost a trillion dollars in value last December. With the altcoin market saturated and investors more wary than ever following continued losses and several failed projects, the landscape going forward could pan out very differently.
It would seem now that any further investment will probably come from traditional financial institutions, finding conduits into cryptocurrency via ETF’s or similar instruments. Due to its market dominance, this money will almost entirely be invested in Bitcoin.
It’s possible that the vast majority of the almost 2000 altcoins and ICO’s that are still flailing to survive will be wiped out and only projects with strong, real-world use-cases will survive. With a more consolidated view of upcoming projects, investments can be better focused on issues that really matter – like debt-relief, refugee identification and wealth distribution.
This opening up of the market will hopefully provide blockchain with a space to breathe and evolve into the groundbreaking technology that it is.
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