A popular crypto analyst who goes by the Twitter handle Plan B (@100trillionUSD) has addressed the first failure of his controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. The model has so far performed with a high degree of accuracy, hitting every monthly target since its creation.
However, ongoing negative price action throughout November has decimated Plan B’s $98k price prediction. Back in June, Plan B blamed Bitcoin’s uncharacteristically low price on China’s mining crackdown and Elon Musk’s misguided comments on Bitcoin’s environmental effects. At the time, he stated his worst case scenario price for November at $98k – considerably higher than November’s actual top which was $69k. However, the analyst assures us that this miss is simply a ‘Floor Model’ miss and the actual Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model remains on-track for Bitcoin to hit $100k.
To clarify: 98K Nov prediction is NOT based on S2F model but on my floor model.
As I said before (in tweets and latest podcasts), I use 3 models:
2) Floor model
3) On-chain model
If for example 98K Nov floor model prediction fails, that does NOT mean S2F or on-chain fails. https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 17, 2021
What’s the difference?
Although Plan B doesn’t provide much in the way of a definitive explanation, ‘Floor Model’ essentially means his lowest price predictions for each month. He has also clarified in a response to another tweet what would qualify as a failure of the ‘S2F Model’:
“S2F fails if btc average price over this halving cycle is not ~$100K.”
Over the past few months, Plan B has received a lot of criticism for the perceived failure of his models. Since creating his S2F model years ago, thousands of Bitcoin enthusiasts have built up a kind of religious fanaticism around its prophetic accuracy. While this failure has dealt a harsh blow to Plan B, the S2F model could still be valid if Bitcoin manages to hit $100k in December.
If not, the crypto community may have to search for another saviour to guide them.